[wxqc] Historical Weather Data
Victor Engel
brillig at gmail.com
Wed Apr 16 16:12:59 CDT 2008
I see this has not been fixed yet. I'm not pestering. I just happened
across this thread and thought I'd take a look.
What I'm really interested in now is a source for long term historical
data. Recently, we had a record low temperature at Austin Bergstrom
Municipal airport. Interestingly, the previous low temperature for the
date was set last year. Given all the hype about global warming
lately, I'm now curious and would like to explore something.
Suppose we have a repository of weather data. It has a starting date,
the date observations began, and an ending date, the date of the most
recent reading. Given the finite nature of the data set, we should be
able to establish a probability that there will be a record set on a
given day.
The first year of the data set, every day's summary values are records
for that day, since there is no history before that date. The
following year, each day has a 50% chance of setting a new record. The
year after that, 33% chance. By the end of the period, the chance that
a new record is set is 1:N where N is the number of years of existing
data. This is true for each data item (highs and lows). Suppose we
have 200 years of data. The chance that we set a new record for a
particular data item today is 1 in 200. The chance that we set a new
record for some day in the next year is 1-(1-1/200)^365 = 0.84 or
about 84%.
What I'm curious about is how the distribution of actual records match
these sorts of probabilities. If we're currently undergoing
significant climate change, I'd expect the current era to have higher
than the expected rate of record data. If, on the other hand, the rate
of new records matches what one would expect by probabilities, that
would be evidence that the climate may not be changing very
significantly.
I moved to Texas in 1980. That year, record high temperatures were set
right and left. We haven't had so many record high temperatures since
then as far as I'm aware. On the other hand, the set of existing data
is larger now, so it's conceivable that it could be hotter yet there
still be fewer new record highs.
Anyway, that is the gist of what I'd like to explore. Now all I need
is the data. Where would be the best place to find such data?
Victor
On Fri, Nov 30, 2007 at 5:13 PM, Gerry Creager <gerry.creager at tamu.edu> wrote:
> Interesting anomaly. I need to look at a couple of other neighboring
> sites. The way we get those data that shouldn't happen but I'll do some
> manual work on it and see if we can fix the problem.
>
> Thanks again for identifying a problem.
>
> Regards, Gerry
>
>
>
> Victor Engel wrote:
> > Thanks.
> >
> > Three seems to be something wrong with the data, however. For example,
> > select KATT as the station, and select October 1-October 2 of this
> > year for the date range. Now look at the temperature data. That's
> > absurd. Apparently, there are two streams of data that got merged into
> > the KATT data. One is in the range of 50F. The other (correct) is in
> > the range of 80F. Do you have an explanation for this anomaly?
> >
> > Victor
> >
> > On 11/29/07, Gerry Creager <gerry.creager at tamu.edu> wrote:
> >> I will try to improve the archive interface for the Texas Mesonet
> >> (http://mesonet.tamu.edu/archives.php) but if there are specific
> >> requests, let me know and I'll try to accommodate them.
> >>
> >> gerry
> >>
> >> Richard wrote:
> >>> National Weather Service?
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Richard
> >>> www.n7tgb.net
> >>>
> >>> -----Original Message-----
> >>> From: wxqc-bounces at lists.gladstonefamily.net
> >>> [mailto:wxqc-bounces at lists.gladstonefamily.net] On Behalf Of Victor Engel
> >>> Sent: Wednesday, November 28, 2007 4:28 PM
> >>> To: Discussion of weather data quality issues
> >>> Subject: Re: [wxqc] Historical Weather Data
> >>>
> >>> Unless I'm missing something, weatherunderground does not provide such
> >>> data for most official stations. Two of the stations I'm interested in
> >>> are the two official stations of Austin: Austin Bergstrom (KAUS) and
> >>> Camp Mabry (KATT). Weatherunderground has current data for them and
> >>> daily summaries and almanac information, but not much more.
> >>>
> >>> On Nov 28, 2007 4:20 PM, Bob Johnson <Weather at jaxweather.net> wrote:
> >>>> Depending on what areas or stations have you tried WeatherUnderground?
> >>>>
> >>>> http://www.weatherunderground.com
> >>>>
> >>>> -Bob
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> On Nov 28, 2007 4:04 PM, Victor Engel < brillig at gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Does anyone know of a site that provides free temperature, humidity,
> >>>>> and barometer data at 15 minute or hourly intervals for the past
> >>>>> couple of years? I'm interested in 4 specific stations.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Victor
> >>>>> _______________________________________________
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> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> --
> >>>> JaxWeather.net
> >>>> Jacksonville, Fl (Lakeshore, 32205) Local Weather
> >>>> http://JaxWeather.net
> >>>>
> >>>>
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> >> --
> >> Gerry Creager -- gerry.creager at tamu.edu
> >> Texas Mesonet -- AATLT, Texas A&M University
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> >> Office: 1700 Research Parkway Ste 160, TAMU, College Station, TX 77843
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> --
> Gerry Creager -- gerry.creager at tamu.edu
> Texas Mesonet -- AATLT, Texas A&M University
> Cell: 979.229.5301 Office: 979.862.3982 FAX: 979.862.3983
>
>
> Office: 1700 Research Parkway Ste 160, TAMU, College Station, TX 77843
>
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